| # | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +10.97% | +9.04 pts | below | Aug 27 | 63 |
| 2 | Top-20 US large-caps, re-picked every session from a daily multi-model composite. | -4.04% | -5.97 pts | below | Aug 27 | 63 |
| 3 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +5.72% | +1.10 pts | below | Aug 27 | 56 |
| 4 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month, re-checked daily. | -22.70% | -27.32 pts | below | Aug 27 | 56 |
| 5 | A long-only book under employee-style trading constraints and a 60-day minimum hold. | +7.47% | +1.18 pts | below | Aug 27 | 55 |
| 6 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +12.77% | +8.25 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 7 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +10.40% | +5.88 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 8 | Fundamental & macro bookactiverules | +9.97% | +5.45 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 9 | Rotates a concentrated basket of sector and asset-class ETFs on a macro read. | +8.43% | +3.91 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 10 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +7.63% | +3.11 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 11 | The same views, sized so quieter names carry more of the book. | -1.00% | -5.52 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 12 | Holds the names the panel most agrees on, equally weighted. | -2.62% | -7.14 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 13 | One set of daily views, sized by conviction score rather than held equally. | -4.00% | -8.52 pts | below | Aug 27 | 54 |
| 14 | A snapshot of a live book's day-one picks, never touched again — the cost of thinking. | +13.33% | +9.38 pts | baseline | Aug 27 | 53 |
| 15 | Holds the S&P 500 index and nothing else — the do-nothing market baseline. | +4.14% | +0.18 pts | baseline | Aug 27 | 53 |
| 16 | A live book's picks, applied a step late — a test of whether timing matters. | +2.90% | -1.05 pts | baseline | Aug 27 | 53 |
| 17 | A book of randomly chosen names on identical mechanics — the coin-flip floor. | -1.01% | -4.97 pts | baseline | Aug 27 | 53 |
| 18 | Tilts toward names seeing recent cluster insider buying. | +19.39% | +16.13 pts | cleared | Aug 27 | 49 |
| 19 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +16.50% | +13.24 pts | below | Aug 27 | 49 |
| 20 | Longs names showing insider buying and holds the position on a slow clock. | +12.63% | +9.36 pts | below | Aug 27 | 49 |
| 21 | Event-driven bookactiverules | +6.77% | +4.13 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 22 | Event-driven bookactiverules | +5.13% | +2.49 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 23 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +3.29% | +0.65 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 24 | Model-disagreement bookactiverules | +2.83% | +0.19 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 25 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +2.23% | -0.40 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 26 | Long / short & market-neutral bookactiverules | +1.43% | -1.21 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 27 | Model-disagreement bookactiverules | +1.21% | -1.43 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 28 | Model-disagreement bookactiverules | +0.93% | -1.71 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 29 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | -1.67% | -4.31 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 30 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | -2.82% | -5.45 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 31 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | -2.89% | -5.53 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 32 | Long / short & market-neutral bookactiverules | -4.83% | -7.47 pts | below | Aug 27 | 39 |
| 33 | Long / short & market-neutral bookactiveLLM | +0.34% | -3.11 pts | below | Aug 27 | 37 |
| 34 | Long / short & market-neutral bookactiveLLM | -0.44% | -3.89 pts | below | Aug 27 | 37 |
| 35 | Event-driven bookactiverules | +3.85% | +1.71 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 36 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +3.58% | +1.44 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 37 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +2.37% | +0.23 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 38 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +1.10% | -1.04 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 39 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +0.80% | -1.34 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 40 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | -1.32% | -3.46 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 41 | Event-driven bookactiverules | -1.55% | -3.68 pts | below | Aug 27 | 35 |
| 42 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +7.24% | +4.81 pts | — | Jul 10 | 22 |
| 43 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +5.63% | +3.20 pts | — | Jul 10 | 22 |
| 44 | Concentrated bets around dated corporate catalysts, riding the post-event drift. | +1.12% | -1.31 pts | — | Jul 10 | 22 |
| 45 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +1.01% | -1.41 pts | — | Jul 10 | 22 |
| 46 | The mirror of catalyst-drift: fades the initial reaction to a dated event. | -0.36% | -2.79 pts | — | Jul 10 | 22 |
| 47 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +6.91% | +2.84 pts | — | Jul 10 | 21 |
| 48 | Buys recent winners and holds the view for a month. | +4.58% | +0.52 pts | — | Jul 10 | 21 |
| 49 | Slower views anchored to fundamental fair-value estimates. | +4.29% | +0.22 pts | — | Jul 10 | 21 |
| 50 | A long/short book that hedges out most of the market's own direction. | -0.04% | -4.11 pts | — | Jul 10 | 21 |
| 51 | Longs and shorts sector/asset ETFs to lean on a macro view while hedging beta. | -0.60% | -4.67 pts | — | Jul 10 | 21 |
| 52 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +16.17% | +14.39 pts | below | Aug 27 | 19 |
| 53 | Holding-horizon bookactiveLLM | +14.52% | +9.90 pts | below | Aug 27 | 19 |
| 54 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +4.36% | +2.59 pts | below | Aug 27 | 19 |
| 55 | Portfolio construction bookactiverules | +1.33% | -0.45 pts | below | Aug 27 | 19 |
| 56 | Model-disagreement bookactiverules | +0.09% | -1.68 pts | below | Aug 27 | 19 |
| 57 | Other approaches bookpausedLLM | +2.55% | +1.80 pts | — | Jul 2 | 18 |
| 58 | Other approaches bookpausedLLM | +5.35% | +2.68 pts | — | Jul 2 | 16 |
| 59 | Other approaches bookpausedLLM | +2.47% | -0.20 pts | — | Jul 2 | 16 |
| 60 | Other approaches bookpausedLLM | +1.80% | -0.87 pts | — | Jul 2 | 16 |
| 61 | Model-disagreement bookpausedLLM | +0.93% | -1.73 pts | — | Jul 2 | 16 |
| 62 | Model-disagreement bookpausedLLM | -2.28% | -4.95 pts | — | Jul 2 | 16 |
| 63 | Holding-horizon bookactiveLLM | -4.46% | -4.18 pts | below | Aug 27 | 15 |
| 64 | Portfolio construction bookpausedrules | 0.00% | +1.95 pts | — | Jun 12 | 11 |
| 65 | Other approaches bookpausedLLM | +0.99% | +0.36 pts | — | Jun 12 | 4 |
Every book is held to the same bar: a distribution of roughly 500 randomly-drawn control portfolios — plus frozen day-one snapshots and plain index trackers — that carry no skill by construction. A book only clears the bar when its result beats the 95th percentile of that random-null distribution, so beating the market once isn't enough — it has to beat the luck. The test is pre-registered and false-discovery-rate corrected, so running many books at once can't manufacture a winner by chance. (The handful of books tagged control in the table above are those fixed baselines shown alongside the strategies.)
Right now, 1 of 43 books with enough settled history have cleared the bar — the Null bar column marks each one.